Showing posts with label mmcc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mmcc. Show all posts

The Resilient Earth



Chapter 3 We are in an Ice Age? (pdf)
Chapter 4 Unprecedented Climate Change? (pdf)
Chapter 5 Ice Ages (pdf)
Chapter 6 Ancient Extinctions (pdf)
Chapter 7 Changing Atmospheric Gases (pdf)
Chapter 8 Moving Continents & Ocean Currents (pdf)
Chapter 9 Variations In Earth's Orbit (pdf)
Chapter 10 Varying Solar Radiation (pdf)
Chapter 11 Cosmic Rays (pdf)
Chapter 12 How Science Works (pdf)
Chapter 13 Experimental Data and Error (pdf)
Chapter 14 The Limits of Climate Science (pdf)
Chapter 15 Prophets of Doom (pdf)
Chapter 16 The Worst That Could Happen (pdf)
Chapter 17 Mitigation Strategies (pdf)
Chapter 18 A Plan for the Future (pdf)
Chapter 19 The Fate of Planet Earth (pdf)
Afterward (pdf)

Sea Change - El Nino & La Nina drive climate change - don't they?

Is ENSO, rather than a ‘Greenhouse Effect’, the origin of ‘Climate Change’? by Erl Happ

[...] Tropical sea surface temperatures respond to the change in surface pressure across the globe and in particular to the differential between mid latitudes and the near equatorial zone.
The southern hemisphere and high latitudes in particular experience marked flux in surface pressure. This leads directly to a change in the trade winds and tropical sea surface temperature.
There is an asymmetry between the hemispheres with loss of pressure in the southern hemisphere compensated to some extent by a gain in pressure in the northern hemisphere.
If we wish to understand the ENSO phenomenon we must look beyond the tropics for causal factors. ENSO in the Pacific is just one facet of change in the tropics. Change is driven by air pressure variations at mid and especially high latitudes. This determines the strength of the trade winds and the temperature of the tropical ocean (where solar insolation is greatest and cloud cover is least). There are knock on effects for heat transfer from the tropics to mid and high latitudes, rainfall, flood, drought and tropical cyclone activity worldwide. The tropical oceans are the Earths solar array.
The flux in surface pressure appears to be cyclical. However, the cycle is longer than the sixty years of available data. We cannot say for sure what the cycle length may be or how it varies over time. However, there is good evidence that the warming cycle that began in 1978 peaked in 1998. Cooling is underway.
We must acknowledge that the ENSO cycle is not temperature neutral. There are short ENSO cycles of just a few years and long ENSO cycles that are longer than 60 years.
Is there evidence that the activity of man (adding CO2 to the atmosphere) is tending to produce more severe El Nino events. The answer is no. The flux in surface pressure is responsible for ENSO and for the swing from El Nino to La Nina dominance. In spite the activities of man, the globe is currently entering a La Nina cooling cycle testifying to the strength of natural cycles and the relative unimportance atmospheric composition in determining the issue (if the much touted greenhouse effect exists at all) .
Is there evidence that the ENSO phenomenon is in fact ‘climate change in action’, driven by factors other than the increase of atmospheric CO2? Yes, it appears that whatever drives the flux in surface atmospheric pressure drives ENSO and with it, climate change.
Is recent ‘Climate Change’ driven by greenhouse gas activity? No, it appears that the cause of recent warming and cooling relates to long-term swings in atmospheric pressure that changes the relations between mid and low latitudes thereby affecting the trade winds that in turn determine the temperature of the Earth’s solar array, its tropical ocean, and ultimately the globe as a whole. /full essay here.

Recommended reading:
Bill Illis on the connection between the Trade winds and ENSO at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/17/the-trade-winds-drive-the-enso/
And the conventional viewpoint on ENSO can be found here: http://earthsci.org/education/investigations/ies/El%20Nino/El%20Ni%F1o.htm

Natural climate variation
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/11/28/natural-climate-variation/

A different view of ENSO and systematic climate change
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/10/04/a-different-view-of-enso-and-systematic-climate-change/

Sea Level Data Exposes El Nino’s Secret
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/08/18/sea-level-data-exposes-el-ninos-secret/

El Nino. How big? How long?
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/06/10/el-nino-how-big-how-long/

Bjørn Lomborg changes sides

Bjørn Lomborg changes sides
Mr. Lomborg now advocates in line with the gang-green bandwagon/gravy train that the public should be defrauded of money to fight climate change AKA AGW/CAGW/MMGW/MMCC. I wonder if his about face was financed? After being a most reasonable sceptic advocating spending on higher priority issues, he now advocates taxing to finance counterproductive boondoggles such as wind energy and solar.
Via CCNet newsletter (http://www.thegwpf.org)

$100bn a Year needed to fight Climate Change
Juliette Jowit
The world's most high-profile climate change sceptic is to declare that global warming is "undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world today" and "a challenge humanity must confront", in an apparent U-turn that will give a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby.
Bjørn Lomborg, the self-styled "sceptical environmentalist" once compared to Adolf Hitler by the UN's climate chief, is famous for attacking climate scientists, campaigners, the media and others for exaggerating the rate of global warming and its effects on humans, and the costly waste of policies to stop the problem.
But in a new book to be published next month, Lomborg will call for tens of billions of dollars a year to be invested in tackling climate change. "Investing $100bn annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the climate change problem by the end of this century," the book concludes.
Examining eight methods to reduce or stop global warming, Lomborg and his fellow economists recommend pouring money into researching and developing clean energy sources such as wind, wave, solar and nuclear power, and more work on climate engineering ideas such as "cloud whitening" to reflect the sun's heat back into the outer atmosphere.
In a Guardian interview, he said he would finance investment through a tax on carbon emissions that would also raise $50bn to mitigate the effect of climate change, for example by building better sea defences, and $100bn for global healthcare.
His declaration about the importance of action on climate change comes at a crucial point in the debate, with international efforts to agree a global deal on emissions stalled amid a resurgence in scepticism caused by rows over the reliability of the scientific evidence for global warming. /continues
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What an ass orifice. The climate and oceans have been "insignificantly" cooling since 2003 and the cooling is very likely to accelerate due to ocean oscillations harmonising in negative phase, the Arctic Oscillation amplifying the winter cool down in its high pressure phase, Arctic sea ice recovering, Antarctic sea ice extending, and solar activity reducing for god knows how long.

Will Wind Energy Cut Nation's Fuel Emissions?

Do physicists accept CO2 back radiation?

TOTAL EMISSIVITY OF A MIXTURE OF GASES CONTAINING 5% OF WATER VAPOR AND 0.039% OF CARBON DIOXIDE, AND THE TOTAL EMISSIVITY OF THE CARBON DIOXIDE ON MARS ATMOSPHERE AND ITS EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE OF MARS’ ATMOSPHERE.
Excerpt:
This magnitude of total normal irradiance from the surface is 2 times higher than the total normal irradiance from the atmosphere (which is 111.5 W/m^2 sr); therefore, the concept of photon stream and induced emission prevails in this case eliminating the speculation of a down-welling radiation that hypothetically warms up the surface. Such is an idea that is absolutely opposed to the second law of thermodynamics. (Reference 4)
The change of temperature caused by the energy absorbed by the surface is 6 K. The error margin is ±0.4 K. Therefore, the change of temperature of the atmosphere caused by the intensity of the irradiance emitted from the surface to the air is 1.94 ±0.4 K.
Given the emissivity of the soil (0.82) (references 1 and 5) compared with the emissivity of the carbon dioxide (0.0017), the load of energy from the surface to the space capable of causing induced emission from the mass of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 53 W/m^2 sr; in contrast, the load of energy emitted by the carbon dioxide to all directions gives a total of 0.28 W/m^2 sr, at all wavelengths corresponding to the spectral emission of carbon dioxide at all bands. (Reference 3)
As a result, the fraction of photons in the photon stream formed from the surface to the space, which is able of causing induced emission, overwhelms the irradiance of energy by the carbon dioxide towards all directions (isotropic) by a percentage of 99%.
Are the proponents of the anthropogenic global warming expecting that physicists believe in the down-welling fallacy?
Nasif Nahle
Full article from here: climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6013

Fraud 6. AGW by CO2 is settled science (by consensus)

The title is a claim made by the UN IPCC, the Royal Society, CRU, Brit Met, WWF and other advocacies.

In return for many tens of billions of dollars the claim by the warmist science is that human emissions of the satanic gas, annual volume currently at 4 parts per million (0.0004% of the atmosphere), drives warming.

To support that claim climate science has yet to explain how sum annual emissions of oceans and land at a guesstimated 98 ppm (UN IPCC ARFour report fig. 7.3) are reabsorbed as well as 2 ppm from human emissions leaving less than 2 ppm of human emissions in the air. (According to NOAA global additions average ~1.9ppm p.a.)

Natural absorbers of CO2 do not show preference otherwise there would be e.g. a 4 ppm addition to the air in 2007 and global increases would be escalating along with human production. They aren't. There is an almost perfect straight line increase of ~1.9 ppm p.a. When the raw data for CO2 additions are considered, there is no resemblance to escalating human output.

Science has yet to show how almost 2 parts per million (0.0002% of the atmosphere) per year addition drives the climate both up and down. Weather cannot be predicted by human CO2 emissions let alone all emissions. Climate cannot be predicted at anytime in the past by CO2 volume. Gang-green scientists have yet to show evidence of CO2 leading temperature or prove how it drives warming when it rises and falls after temperature changes. Ice cores around the world agree CO2 volume follows temperature up to a thousand years after temperature change. Ice core data has been ~confirmed by sediment core data. Yet climate variation can and has been predicted by the Pacific Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of El Nino influence on surface layer ocean temperature variation together with solar emissions. For the last few years, Piers Corbyn of Weather Action has very accurately predicted weather events ahead of time using solar "weather" conditions.
He uses a hand-held calculator.

The only support the warmista has is models that crazily assume CO2 drives warming. There are dozens of them that all produce different outcomes by "tweaking" included variables. The UN IPCC selected a dozen that best suited their contention and declared the science was settled. None has been able to predict the climate. The UN IPCC put the results of the models together and said "there you go, we got it right". Projecting the "homogenised" model results gives millennia scale projections of between Uranus conditions (-200C) to solar surface temperatures. The fact is that none of the selected models predicted that, and as one of the UN IPCC's central scientists admitted, there was no warming of any significance for the last 15 years. There has been almost continuous criticism of the faith put in climate models as predictors of climate, even notable modellers admit that all they can produce are "what if" scenarios. Since 1988, being extremely generous, models have scored the first 7 right from 22 years. Next year it will be from 23 and so on.

The famous consensus is just another glint in the IPCC's one eye. Link (consensus=1) Link (consensus=a few dozen)

What other credible scientific evidence is there that human emissions in any way significantly affect the climate? None. Joanne Nova has produced the Sceptic's Handbook I and II that detail why the protagonist claims are false.

Scientists unconvinced by warmist rhetoric are searching for the real drivers of the climate. Debunks of the fancy that CO2 is a climate driver abound. The leading contender is that the Sun is the primary source. The amount of radiation that reaches the top of the troposphere after passing through high atmosphere filters is guessed to be around 341 Watts per sq. mtr (Wm2). The amount that reaches the surface, that is available as IR is guessed to be 161 Wm2. This last is a highly variable number, the reason being that we have ozone, a strong absorber of UV, oxygen and water in the air that diffuse sunlight and of course clouds that reflect much sunlight back to space. We also have to account for the albedo of ice that varies depending on the season, penetration of warm currents and crops. Light coloured crops have a high albedo and darker crops absorb more solar energy. Models based on CO2 being the agent of doom are hopeless at predicting albedo, cloudiness, precipitation etc. i.e. useless.

Dr Spencer is the most public and possibly leading researcher and theorist concerning the influence of cloud and he has found that small changes in cloud extent can have a large impact on lower atmosphere temperatures.

The deeply superstitious Sir J Houghton (spawner of the Hadley CRU clan and co-architect of the UNEP/IPCC disaster) in cahoots with the fugitive former UN/FCCC/UNEP/IPCC/ star M. Strong looks to have been the main instigator of all the CO2 crud that spawned all the gang-green crap.

His theory. His perfect creator made us to emit CO2 and absorb oxygen in return for biomass absorbing CO2 and emitting oxygen. More of one causes more of the other. We are to be punished for the sin of emitting CO2. Words escape me. (That was a joke.)


Fraud 1. Maldives, Tuvalu, sea levels
Fraud 2. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Fraud 3. Carbon credits
Fraud 4. The Wind Energy Boondoggle
Supplement to Fraud 4. Wind Energy
Fraud 5. Biofuel Boondoggle
Fraud 6. AGW by CO2 is settled science (by consensus)
Fraud 7. The IPCC - Its Reason For Being