Cold Day In Moscow

Jim and Al will very soon find themselves on the wrong side of the street. If NASA sacks Jim for his 'sins', no doubt Cap'n Brown has a seat for him. For the ordinary city dweller in the UK, the UK isn't what it used to be after years of mismanagement and bad governance, gone to the dogs you might say. They think we have a continent sized country. We haven't, it's a small very overcrowded island.

The Russians, well known for their intelligence service have just delivered a piece of intelligence. It's going to start get colder before 2012. Oleg Sorokhtin himself, (a Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences) has given us the benefit of his findings and they are not heartwarming.
Novosti article
MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin [a Merited Scientist of Russia and fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences] for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.

Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.

The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.

Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.

The rest of the article is worth reading. He was echoing the findings of the US Space and Science Research Center - (Their article)
“We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.”

As to what these changes are Casey says, “The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the “conveyor belt” essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a “solar hibernation,” the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.”
NASA's predictions from last May.

My guess was for the cool down to start 2012. As for 2008, the Met Office has again forecast a record breaking year. A stopped clock is right twice a day. The problem is in the averaging. They could use certain climate conditions for as many years as they persist between changeovers and categorize them by climate condition. They could then have a folder for say Stable wet, Dry, Very dry, Average, Changeable. When we are in a Dry period, look through the other dry periods to see what followed. Using decadal averages puts an unreal constraint on the start and end. I'll copyright that :)

Highlights of the report on those 400 scientists who decried alarmism can be found on sen Inhofe's blog.
The report begins;

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

The new report issued by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee’s office of the GOP Ranking Member details the views of the scientists, the overwhelming majority of whom spoke out in 2007.

Rami Zurayk runs an interesting blog, Senate Skeptics. One discussion that took my attention, (link) listed proponents of AGW, including an A-Z of companies. My first thought was "is that it?" for such an overwhelmingly supported cause it was piffling, my second was to wonder how many had something to gain how many nothing and how many something to lose. It's a crazy, crazy world we live in.

Congratulations to Obama. A late but very welcome christmas present for him. Let's hope the successes continue to roll in. The US needs a breath of fresh air and sanity.

Back to more important considerations.

The Gulf Stream is of considerably less significance to European weather and climate that commonly held myth gives it credit for. Published in American Scientist Online, a five page discussion on the diminished Gulf Stream's influence and the true ruler of the roost, wind here.

The Chilean volcano popping must have sent another chill through Jim Hansen's heart.
Liaima Volcano


This nicely done page on San Diego State Uni. Geological Sciences site explains the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions if anyone cares to visit. It fairly comprehensively details the ozone, greenhouse, and haze effects. Cool.

Hit the pit time.